…But the GOP primary race isn’t over until Rudy dresses up as a fat lady and sings.
Now that the Florida primary is over, and Hillary Clinton won her party’s vote by a landslide, it’s a pretty safe assumption that she’ll be the Democratic candidate. On the GOP side, it’s looking increasingly likely that the nod will go to John McCain.
Bill Clinton said such a match-up will likely be the most civilized, ever. Knowing the kind of hardball that the Clintons play though, I have a tough time believing that. They can get incredibly nasty with their oppo tactics, but their opponent often has no idea where the bullet’s coming from.
So the big question everyone is asking me is, “Hey what happened to Giuliani?” Well, Rudy’s main disadvantage, as I’ve pointed out before, is that the media either ignored him or, when they weren’t ignoring him, attacked him relentlessly. While their politics are very similar, McCain operated largely off the media radar as a non-threat up until very recently. In fact, his campaign almost folded from lack of cash, about 6-7 months ago.
Watch for Rudy to throw his support behind McCain very soon. There’s no point with him continuing on himself, given that he has no chance and no money at this point.
Some people think that if Rudy would have put more effort into earlier caucuses and primaries, rather than focusing entirely on Florida and the Super Tuesday states, then he would have created more “momentum” and had more of a chance. Somehow, I doubt that. This “momentum” of which political analysts speak is largely a media driven phenomenon — and Rudy was never going to have the media on his side. You can’t operate a campaign in the dark — and the media largely assured that he would have to.
Granted, Giuliani could have spent more money on advertising in the earlier states, but local ads don’t have anywhere near the power of the big mainstream media machine and its echo chamber reverberations, spanning from coast-to-coast.
I mean, Britney Spears had perfume ads out, too. Does anyone remember them? I doubt it. All we see is the media driven chaos.
The next bit of speculation is going to center on who the running mates will be.
I predict that Clinton will choose New Mexico’s Bill Richardson, a well-liked Hispanic from a southern state. And who knows who McCain will pick — although he’d be wise to choose a popular southern governor.